Ateba Gautier vs. Roman Kopylov
Middleweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 3
Fighter Elo 1636Confident: Ateba GautierFighter Elo 1505
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Ateba GautierRoman Kopylov
20%Decision11%
46%KO/TKO20%
3%Submission2%
30%Goes the Distance
8.5 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Ateba Gautier is ahead by 131 in total.
Ateba GautierRoman Kopylov
Age and Build+134Striking+35Past Results+2Experience+10Grappling+26
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Ateba Gautier | Roman Kopylov | |
|---|---|---|
| 42.97 to 89 | Significant Strikes | 32.74 to 70 |
| 0.1usually 0 | Takedowns | 0.30 to 1 |
| 0.70 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.30 to 1 |
| 0.3 min0 to 0.9 | Control Time | 0.6 min0 to 1.8 |
| 0.1usually 0 | Submission Attempts | 0usually 0 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Ateba Gautier45%
Roman Kopylov34%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Ateba Gautier is unbeaten in the UFC at 5-0.
- Roman Kopylov won by decision against Marco Tulio last time out, in 2026.
- Ateba Gautier is younger by 11 years.
- Ateba Gautier has a longer reach by 6 inches.
- Ateba Gautier has finished 4 of 5 UFC wins (4 by KO/TKO, 0 by submission).
- Roman Kopylov has finished 5 of 7 UFC wins (5 by KO/TKO, 0 by submission).
- The biggest single edge is age and build: 134 Fighter Elo points in favor of Ateba Gautier.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.