Frequently Asked Questions
Short answers. The How It Works page has the longer ones.
What is Phins?
A forecasting and analytics site for the UFC. It rates every fighter, forecasts every fight, and grades its own forecasts in public.
Is this betting advice?
No. Phins is a forecasting and analytics site. It takes no bets and tells no one what to bet.
Does the model use betting odds?
No. It learns only from fight results and fight statistics. It never sees odds and is not tuned against them.
What is Fighter Elo?
The model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500, and the gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win. Unlike classic Elo it counts more than wins and losses. Every fighter's profile explains it in full.
Why does a fighter with a better record rank lower?
Fighter Elo looks ahead. It counts age, time away and how the fights went, as well as results, so a young unbeaten fighter can sit above a long-time champion.
What is the difference between Fighter Elo and Classic Elo?
Fighter Elo projects fighters: it is the model's view of who would be favored next. Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it is closer to normal rankings. The Rankings page has a switch between the two.
What do Toss-Up, Lean, Confident and Very Confident mean?
Toss-Up means the pick has a 50% to 55% chance. Lean means the pick has a 55% to 65% chance. Confident means the pick has a 65% to 75% chance. Very Confident means the pick has a 75% to 100% chance. The Record page shows how often each label has been right.
How accurate is it?
See the Record page. It shows the live record as it builds, and how the model did when replayed over past fights.
How do I find a fighter?
Use the search at the top right of any page. Every fighter has a profile with their Fighter Elo, career numbers and full UFC fight history.
Where does the data come from?
Public UFC fight statistics, and fight cards and fight records from Wikipedia.
How often is it updated?
Before every UFC card, and again once the results are in.
Do I need an account?
No. Accounts are not open yet, and everything on the site is free to read.
Is Phins affiliated with the UFC?
No.