How It Works
Phins is one model that learns from past UFC fights and nothing else. Here is what goes in, what comes out, and where it falls short.
What Goes In
Before a fight, Phins measures 92 stats and metrics about each fighter, using only what was known at the time: results, striking and grappling numbers, age and build, how active they have been, and what they did before the UFC. It has learned from 8,245 UFC fights since 2006 how much each of those has mattered.
No betting odds are used anywhere in the model. It does not see them, and it is not tuned against them.
What Comes Out
- A Fighter Elo for every fighter, on the same scale chess uses. The gap between two fighters sets the win chance.
- How the fight ends: knockout, submission or decision for each fighter, and the round.
- Projected numbers: each fight is simulated 20,000 times to see how many strikes, takedowns and minutes of control each fighter is likely to put up.
How Fighter Elo Works
Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.
Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.
Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.
How It Is Graded
Every forecast is saved before the fights. Once results are in, each pick is marked right or wrong on the Record page and stays there. The saved forecasts are never edited.
Where It Falls Short
- In a replay of 2015 to 2026 it called 63.4% of winners. That is well ahead of a coin flip, and a long way from certain.
- Fighters making their UFC debut are the hardest to call, because there is less to go on.
- It cannot see injuries, weight cuts, short-notice replacements or anything else that is not in the fight record.
- A chance is a chance. A fighter given 70% loses about three times in ten, and that is the forecast working as intended.
What Phins Is Not
Phins is a forecasting and analytics site. It is not betting advice, it takes no bets, and it is not affiliated with the UFC.
Sources
Fight statistics come from public UFC records. Fight cards and fight records outside the UFC come from Wikipedia, used under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license.