The Record
Every forecast is saved before the fights and graded after. Nothing is edited later, and the misses stay on the page.
Live Record
Starts With UFC 332
14 forecasts are saved. They are graded after the fights on Saturday, October 3.
Saved, Waiting for Results
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Saturday, October 3 · saved Oct 2 at 6:17 PM| Fight | Pick | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong | Natalia Silva | 61% |
| Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott | Payton Talbott | 66% |
| King Green vs. Esteban Ribovics | King Green | 63% |
| Roberto Soldic vs. Khaos Williams | Roberto Soldic | 55% |
| Ateba Gautier vs. Roman Kopylov | Ateba Gautier | 68% |
| Imanol Rodriguez vs. Alden Coria | Alden Coria | 52% |
| Damian Pinas vs. Andrey Pulyaev | Damian Pinas | 70% |
| Marcus McGhee vs. Anthony Romero | Marcus McGhee | 65% |
| Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand | Anthony Wint | 78% |
| Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin | Johnny Walker | 53% |
| Jacobe Smith vs. Bruce Whitehead | Jacobe Smith | 73% |
| Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Alexander Hernandez | Alexander Hernandez | 60% |
| Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev | Ismail Naurdiev | 53% |
| Court McGee vs. Eric Nolan | Eric Nolan | 62% |
Tested on the Past
The Replay, 2015 to 2026
Before going live, the model was replayed over 5,756 past fights. Each year was forecast by a version that had only seen earlier years. A replay is weaker evidence than a live record, so the live record above is the one that counts.
63.4%Winners Called
63.7%When Both Had Fought in the UFC
62.5%When One Was Making a Debut
How Often Each Label Was Right
Toss-Up50% to 55% · 1,301 fights
54.9%
Lean55% to 65% · 2,263 fights
60.2%
Confident65% to 75% · 1,474 fights
68.5%
Very Confident75% to 100% · 718 fights
78.6%
Are the Chances Honest?
When the simulation said a fighter had a 75% chance of clearing a number, did it happen about 75% of the time? We checked 218,728 times in the replay. Dots on the dashed line are exactly right.
| Phins Said | It Happened |
|---|---|
| 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 14.8% | 14.9% |
| 24.8% | 25.6% |
| 34.8% | 36.2% |
| 44.9% | 47.1% |
| 54.9% | 56.8% |
| 64.8% | 65.9% |
| 74.6% | 74.9% |
| 84.1% | 83.1% |
| 91.9% | 91.5% |
Method and Numbers
Next to the simplest guess: assuming fights end the way they usually do, and that each fighter puts up their usual numbers.
| How the Fight Ends | Phins | Usual Guess |
|---|---|---|
| Method Right | 51.9% | 49.5% |
| Goes the Distance, Yes or No | 60.0% | 50.5% |
| Winner and Method Both Right | 33.8% | 31.0% |
| Average Miss per Fight | Phins | Own Average |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes | 23.93 | 25.42 |
| Takedowns | 1.05 | 1.15 |
| Knockdowns | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Control Time (min) | 1.86 | 2.07 |
| Submission Attempts | 0.45 | 0.50 |