UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Phins called 5 of 11 winners on this card. Its forecasts added up to about 6.6, so that is worse than its own forecasts expected. The surest call that landed was Alice Pereira at 66%. The biggest miss was Matheus Camilo at 67%.
By how sure Phins was: Toss-Up 2 of 3, Lean 2 of 5, Confident 1 of 3.
The Calls That Landed
The picks Phins was surest of that came in.
- Alice Pereira, given 66%, won by KO/TKO.
- Francisco Prado, given 64%, won by KO/TKO.
- Loopy Godinez, given 61%, won by decision.
- Niko Price, given 55%, won by KO/TKO.
In 2 fights it had both the winner and the way it ended as its single likeliest outcome.
The Misses
Every pick that lost, biggest first. They stay on the page.
- Phins had Matheus Camilo at 67%. Jai Herbert won by decision.
- Phins had Christian Leroy Duncan at 67%. Brendan Allen won by submission.
- Phins had RJ Harris at 64%. Allen Frye Jr. won by KO/TKO.
- Phins had Felipe Franco at 62%. Brendson Ribeiro won by submission.
- Phins had Kai Kamaka III at 56%. Andre Fili won by KO/TKO.
- Phins had Malcolm Wellmaker at 53%. Otari Tanzilovi won by KO/TKO.
Close to the Numbers
Projected significant strikes against what each fighter landed.
- Andre Fili: projected 50 significant strikes, landed 50.
- Otari Tanzilovi: projected 35 significant strikes, landed 38.
- Niko Price: projected 36 significant strikes, landed 41.
- Daria Zhelezniakova: projected 51 significant strikes, landed 6.
- Christian Leroy Duncan: projected 72 significant strikes, landed 106.
- Leon Shahbazyan: projected 32 significant strikes, landed 0.
A projection is an average over every way the fight could go, so a quick finish lands well under it and a long fight lands over. Across all the number calls on this card, the likelier side came in 343 of 418 times.
Who Moved
The biggest changes in Fighter Elo from this card.
- Julius Walker: up 74 to 1535.
- Alice Pereira: up 31 to 1587.
- Niko Price: up 29 to 1337.
- Gerald Meerschaert: down 74 to 1383.
- Ismael Bonfim: down 68 to 1342.
- Daria Zhelezniakova: down 64 to 1377.
Every Fight
The pick, the chance Phins gave it, and what happened.
| Fight | Pick | Chance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan | Christian Leroy Duncan | 67% | Wrong Brendan Allen by submission |
| Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert | Matheus Camilo | 67% | Wrong Jai Herbert by decision |
| Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza | Loopy Godinez | 61% | Right Loopy Godinez by decision |
| Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III | Kai Kamaka III | 56% | Wrong Andre Fili by KO/TKO |
| Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi | Malcolm Wellmaker | 53% | Wrong Otari Tanzilovi by KO/TKO |
| Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert | Julius Walker | 50% | Right Julius Walker by KO/TKO |
| Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim | Francisco Prado | 64% | Right Francisco Prado by KO/TKO |
| Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan | Niko Price | 55% | Right Niko Price by KO/TKO |
| Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro | Felipe Franco | 62% | Wrong Brendson Ribeiro by submission |
| Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris | RJ Harris | 64% | Wrong Allen Frye Jr. by KO/TKO |
| Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova | Alice Pereira | 66% | Right Alice Pereira by KO/TKO |
| Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto | Melissa Gatto | 62% | No winner (draw, no contest or disqualification) |
This report is written automatically from the forecasts saved before the card and the official results. Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.