Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong
Main Event · Women's Flyweight · 5 Rounds · Saturday, October 3
Wang Cong39%
Fighter Elo 1639Lean: Natalia SilvaFighter Elo 1561
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Natalia SilvaWang Cong
36%Decision27%
18%KO/TKO10%
7%Submission2%
63%Goes the Distance
18.6 minAverage Length, of 25
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Natalia Silva is ahead by 78 in total.
Natalia SilvaWang Cong
Past Results+68Age and Build+44Activity+11Grappling+5Experience+5Striking+35
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Natalia Silva | Wang Cong | |
|---|---|---|
| 79.714 to 153 | Significant Strikes | 84.814 to 164 |
| 0.90 to 3 | Takedowns | 0.40 to 2 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.20 to 1 |
| 1.9 min0 to 6 | Control Time | 1.1 min0 to 3.8 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.1usually 0 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Natalia Silva45%
Wang Cong49%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Natalia Silva is unbeaten in the UFC at 8-0.
- Wang Cong has won 4 in a row in the UFC.
- Natalia Silva is younger by 5 years.
- Both have fought Victoria Leonardo: Natalia Silva won by KO/TKO in 2023, Wang Cong won by KO/TKO in 2024.
- Wang Cong lands 6.8 significant strikes a minute to Natalia Silva's 4.8.
- Scheduled for five rounds. Neither fighter has been past the third round in the UFC.
- The biggest single edge is past results: 68 Fighter Elo points in favor of Natalia Silva.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.