Anthony Wint vs. Lucas Armand
Heavyweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 3
Anthony Wint78%
Lucas Armand22%
Fighter Elo 1603Very Confident: Anthony WintFighter Elo 1378
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Anthony WintLucas Armand
29%Decision9%
28%KO/TKO9%
21%Submission3%
39%Goes the Distance
8.9 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Anthony Wint is ahead by 225 in total.
Anthony WintLucas Armand
Before the UFC+154Experience+29Past Results+28Striking+22Grappling+9Age and Build+1Activity+16
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Anthony Wint | Lucas Armand | |
|---|---|---|
| 33.45 to 71 | Significant Strikes | 25.43 to 55 |
| 1.40 to 4 | Takedowns | 0.50 to 2 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.1usually 0 |
| 3.3 min0 to 8.6 | Control Time | 1.4 min0 to 4.3 |
| 0.50 to 2 | Submission Attempts | 0.20 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Anthony Wint47%
Lucas Armand35%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Anthony Wint won by submission against Terrance Chatman last time out, in 2026.
- Lucas Armand is making a UFC debut, so there is less to go on.
- The biggest single edge is the record before the UFC: 154 Fighter Elo points in favor of Anthony Wint.
- The likeliest single ending in the forecast is Anthony Wint by decision, at 29%.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.