Court McGee vs. Eric Nolan
Welterweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 3
Court McGee38%
Eric Nolan62%
Fighter Elo 1301Lean: Eric NolanFighter Elo 1383
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Court McGeeEric Nolan
23%Decision27%
4%KO/TKO29%
11%Submission6%
50%Goes the Distance
10.2 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Eric Nolan is ahead by 82 in total.
Court McGeeEric Nolan
Grappling+74Past Results+28Before the UFC+8Striking+10Activity+25Experience+33Age and Build+125
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Court McGee | Eric Nolan | |
|---|---|---|
| 44.16 to 91 | Significant Strikes | 478 to 94 |
| 1.70 to 5 | Takedowns | 0.40 to 2 |
| 0.1usually 0 | Knockdowns | 0.40 to 1 |
| 2.6 min0 to 7.3 | Control Time | 0.7 min0 to 2.4 |
| 0.30 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.20 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Court McGee43%
Eric Nolan46%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Court McGee lost by decision against Michael Chiesa last time out, in 2025.
- Eric Nolan has lost their last 2 UFC fights.
- Eric Nolan is younger by 13 years.
- Court McGee has been out for 1.3 years.
- Court McGee has 24 UFC fights to Eric Nolan's 2.
- The biggest single edge is age and build: 125 Fighter Elo points in favor of Eric Nolan.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.