Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev
Middleweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 3
Fighter Elo 1536Toss-Up: Ismail NaurdievFighter Elo 1554
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Marvin VettoriIsmail Naurdiev
29%Decision40%
9%KO/TKO10%
9%Submission3%
69%Goes the Distance
12.6 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Ismail Naurdiev is ahead by 18 in total.
Marvin VettoriIsmail Naurdiev
Past Results+43Grappling+39Experience+37Age and Build+29Striking+107
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Marvin Vettori | Ismail Naurdiev | |
|---|---|---|
| 48.814 to 87 | Significant Strikes | 67.218 to 121 |
| 10 to 3 | Takedowns | 0.60 to 2 |
| 0.10 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.20 to 1 |
| 2.6 min0 to 7 | Control Time | 1 min0 to 3.3 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.1usually 0 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Marvin Vettori31%
Ismail Naurdiev53%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Marvin Vettori has lost their last 4 UFC fights.
- Ismail Naurdiev won by KO/TKO against Ryan Loder last time out, in 2025.
- Ismail Naurdiev is younger by 3 years.
- Marvin Vettori has never been finished in 18 UFC fights.
- Ismail Naurdiev has never been finished in 7 UFC fights.
- Marvin Vettori has 18 UFC fights to Ismail Naurdiev's 7.
- The biggest single edge is striking: 107 Fighter Elo points in favor of Ismail Naurdiev.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.