Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Alexander Hernandez
Lightweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 3
Fighter Elo 1423Lean: Alexander HernandezFighter Elo 1492
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Rafael Dos AnjosAlexander Hernandez
28%Decision33%
7%KO/TKO22%
5%Submission5%
61%Goes the Distance
11.8 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Alexander Hernandez is ahead by 69 in total.
Rafael Dos AnjosAlexander Hernandez
Past Results+29Striking+19Grappling+10Experience+13Activity+26Age and Build+88
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Rafael Dos Anjos | Alexander Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| 48.910 to 92 | Significant Strikes | 51.613 to 95 |
| 10 to 3 | Takedowns | 0.60 to 2 |
| 0.10 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.30 to 1 |
| 2 min0 to 5.9 | Control Time | 1.3 min0 to 4.2 |
| 0.10 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.10 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Rafael Dos Anjos44%
Alexander Hernandez47%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Rafael Dos Anjos has lost their last 3 UFC fights.
- Alexander Hernandez lost by decision against Rafa Garcia last time out, in 2026.
- Alexander Hernandez is younger by 8 years.
- Alexander Hernandez has a longer reach by 2 inches.
- Rafael Dos Anjos has been out for 1.9 years.
- Both have fought Renato Moicano: Rafael Dos Anjos won by decision in 2022, Alexander Hernandez lost by submission in 2022.
- Both have fought Donald Cerrone: Rafael Dos Anjos won by KO/TKO in 2015, Alexander Hernandez lost by KO/TKO in 2019.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.