Tuesday Notes: Jourdain vs. Cuamba

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott is 4 days away. Of the 13 fights on it, we're confident in 4 and think 5 are basically even, which leaves plenty of room for the night to go sideways in either direction.

Fight to Watch: Jourdain vs. Cuamba

This one puts Louis Jourdain, who is making their UFC debut, across from Timothy Cuamba, who is making their UFC debut, in a 3-round fight at bantamweight.

We have Louis Jourdain winning 60% of the time, enough to pick a side without feeling too sure about it. Most of that comes from their record before the UFC.

In our simulations this goes the full 15 minutes 45% of the time. If it does end early, round 1 is the likeliest time for it. If Jourdain gets the win, decision is the most common way it happens; for Cuamba, it's decision. We expect something like 35 significant strikes from Jourdain and 33 from Cuamba, and Jourdain is the one more likely to drag it to the mat, at around 1.3 takedowns a fight.

Upset Watch

The underdogs we'd keep an eye on are Nate Landwehr at 49% against Mandel Nallo, Jhonata Diniz at 48% against Tanner Boser, and Javad Mahjoub at 47% against Joel Faglier. At numbers like these, the favorite is only a little more likely to win, so don't be surprised if one or two of them flip.

From the Archive

14 years ago today, Anderson Silva beat Stephan Bonnar by KO/TKO in round 1 in the main event at UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar.

How the Card Should Go

Our simulations have about 7 of these 13 fights ending early, which gives you an idea of how much the judges might matter tonight. The likeliest finish on the card is Nallo vs. Landwehr (69%), the best knockout odds belong to Nallo vs. Landwehr (56%), and Anheliger vs. Koslow is the one to watch for a tap (31%).

By the Numbers

If you sort every active fighter with at least eight UFC fights by submission attempts per 15 minutes, Julian Marquez sits at the top with 2.67. Charles Oliveira (2.59) and Terrance McKinney (2.18) are the closest behind.

That's all for today. If you think you can call the next card better than we can, Predict Against the Bot is open on the Social page.