Phins 66% 34%
Kalshi 56% 44%
10 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Women's Bantamweight · 3 Rounds
Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins is 10 points higher on Alice Pereira than Kalshi's price (66% to 56%). Age and Build favors Alice Pereira by 112 Fighter Elo points. Past Results pulls the other way, by 11 points toward Daria Zhelezniakova. Alice Pereira is younger by 10 years. The likeliest single ending is Alice Pereira by decision, at 38%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Alice Pereira by Submission, 12% from Phins and 2% from Kalshi. Alice Pereira has 2 UFC fights, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Alice Pereira by KO/TKO16%18%-2
Alice Pereira by Submission12%2%+10
Alice Pereira by Decision38%35%+3
Daria Zhelezniakova by KO/TKO8%13%-5
Daria Zhelezniakova by Submission4%5%-1
Daria Zhelezniakova by Decision23%28%-5
Goes the Distance61%57%+4
Ends in Round 117%17%0
Ends in Round 215%13%+2
Ends in Round 37%11%-4
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Alice PereiraDaria Zhelezniakova
Age and Build+112Grappling+31Activity+1Before the UFC+1Striking+8Past Results+11Experience+11
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Alice PereiraDaria Zhelezniakova
| 1556 | Fighter Elo | 1441 |
|---|---|---|
| 1499 | Classic Elo | 1501 |
| 1-1 | UFC Record | 2-2 |
| 20 | Age | 30 |
| 5'8" | Height | 5'9" |
| 71" | Reach | 68" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 2.83 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 4.13 |
| 3.12 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.38 |
| 67% | Striking Defense | 64% |
| 0.00 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 0.31 |
| 75% | Takedown Defense | 50% |
| 100% | Finish Rate | 0% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.