Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova
Women's Bantamweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 10
Fighter Elo 1556Confident: Alice PereiraFighter Elo 1441
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Alice PereiraDaria Zhelezniakova
38%Decision23%
16%KO/TKO8%
12%Submission4%
61%Goes the Distance
11.6 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Alice Pereira is ahead by 115 in total.
Alice PereiraDaria Zhelezniakova
Age and Build+112Grappling+31Activity+1Before the UFC+1Striking+8Past Results+11Experience+11
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Alice Pereira | Daria Zhelezniakova | |
|---|---|---|
| 51.312 to 96 | Significant Strikes | 51.111 to 96 |
| 1.10 to 3 | Takedowns | 0.30 to 1 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.1usually 0 |
| 2 min0 to 5.7 | Control Time | 0.8 min0 to 2.6 |
| 0.30 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.1usually 0 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Alice Pereira47%
Daria Zhelezniakova47%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Alice Pereira won by KO/TKO against Hailey Cowan last time out, in 2026.
- Daria Zhelezniakova lost by decision against Melissa Croden last time out, in 2026.
- Alice Pereira is younger by 10 years.
- Alice Pereira has a longer reach by 3 inches.
- Both have fought Montse Rendon: Alice Pereira lost by decision in 2025, Daria Zhelezniakova won by decision in 2024.
- The biggest single edge is age and build: 112 Fighter Elo points in favor of Alice Pereira.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.