Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto
Women's Flyweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 10
Fighter Elo 1421Lean: Melissa GattoFighter Elo 1498
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Ernesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto
27%Decision47%
7%KO/TKO9%
5%Submission6%
73%Goes the Distance
12.8 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Melissa Gatto is ahead by 77 in total.
Ernesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto
Age and Build+30Grappling+6Experience+2Activity+2Past Results+55Striking+61
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Ernesta Kareckaite | Melissa Gatto | |
|---|---|---|
| 55.316 to 98 | Significant Strikes | 65.519 to 116 |
| 0.80 to 2 | Takedowns | 1.70 to 4 |
| 0.1usually 0 | Knockdowns | 0.1usually 0 |
| 2.2 min0 to 6.2 | Control Time | 3.3 min0 to 8.3 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.30 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Ernesta Kareckaite40%
Melissa Gatto52%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Ernesta Kareckaite lost by decision against Regina Tarin last time out, in 2026.
- Melissa Gatto lost by decision against Dione Barbosa last time out, in 2026.
- Ernesta Kareckaite is younger by 2 years.
- Ernesta Kareckaite has a longer reach by 2 inches.
- Both have fought Dione Barbosa: Ernesta Kareckaite lost by decision in 2024, Melissa Gatto lost by decision in 2026.
- Ernesta Kareckaite lands 5.6 significant strikes a minute to Melissa Gatto's 3.5.
- Melissa Gatto has never been finished in 6 UFC fights.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.