Phins 36% 64%
Kalshi 26% 74%
10 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Heavyweight · 3 Rounds
Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins is 10 points higher on Allen Frye Jr. than Kalshi's price (36% to 26%). Experience favors Allen Frye Jr. by 27 Fighter Elo points. Striking pulls the other way, by 83 points toward RJ Harris. The likeliest single ending is RJ Harris by KO/TKO, at 37%. The biggest gap in how it ends: RJ Harris by Submission, 4% from Phins and 28% from Kalshi. Allen Frye Jr. has 1 UFC fights, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Allen Frye Jr. by KO/TKO12%8%+4
Allen Frye Jr. by Submission6%4%+2
Allen Frye Jr. by Decision19%8%+11
RJ Harris by KO/TKO37%42%-5
RJ Harris by Submission4%28%-24
RJ Harris by Decision23%10%+13
Goes the Distance42%22%+20
Ends in Round 133%45%-12
Ends in Round 217%20%-3
Ends in Round 38%15%-7
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Allen Frye Jr.RJ Harris
Experience+27Activity+13Past Results+1Before the UFC+9Grappling+18Age and Build+28Striking+83
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Allen Frye Jr.RJ Harris
| 1378 | Fighter Elo | 1474 |
|---|---|---|
| 1484 | Classic Elo | 1515 |
| 0-1 | UFC Record | 1-0 |
| 28 | Age | 28 |
| – | Height | 6'3" |
| – | Reach | 78" |
| – | Stance | Orthodox |
| 2.20 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 9.00 |
| 4.27 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 6.60 |
| 36% | Striking Defense | 56% |
| 0.00 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 0.00 |
| – | Finish Rate | 100% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.