Phins 44% 56%
Kalshi 58% 42%
14 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Featherweight · 3 Rounds
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins picks Kai Kamaka III at 56%; Kalshi's price favors Andre Fili at 58%. Age and Build favors Kai Kamaka III by 50 Fighter Elo points. Grappling pulls the other way, by 22 points toward Andre Fili. The likeliest single ending is Kai Kamaka III by decision, at 29%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Andre Fili by Decision, 21% from Phins and 33% from Kalshi. Kai Kamaka III has 2 UFC fights, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Andre Fili by KO/TKO19%24%-5
Andre Fili by Submission5%2%+3
Andre Fili by Decision21%33%-12
Kai Kamaka III by KO/TKO21%11%+10
Kai Kamaka III by Submission6%2%+4
Kai Kamaka III by Decision29%28%+1
Goes the Distance50%56%-6
Ends in Round 127%18%+9
Ends in Round 214%16%-2
Ends in Round 39%11%-2
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Andre FiliKai Kamaka III
Grappling+22Past Results+18Activity+2Before the UFC+2Experience+9Striking+22Age and Build+50
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Andre FiliKai Kamaka III
| 1322 | Fighter Elo | 1360 |
|---|---|---|
| 1503 | Classic Elo | 1501 |
| 13-13 | UFC Record | 1-1 |
| 36 | Age | nan |
| 5'11" | Height | – |
| 74" | Reach | – |
| Orthodox | Stance | – |
| 3.89 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 7.09 |
| 4.55 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 8.26 |
| 50% | Striking Defense | 54% |
| 2.24 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 0.00 |
| 72% | Takedown Defense | 67% |
| 31% | Finish Rate | 0% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.