Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
Featherweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 10
Andre Fili44%
Fighter Elo 1322Lean: Kai Kamaka IIIFighter Elo 1360
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Andre FiliKai Kamaka III
21%Decision29%
19%KO/TKO21%
5%Submission6%
50%Goes the Distance
10.4 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Kai Kamaka III is ahead by 38 in total.
Andre FiliKai Kamaka III
Grappling+22Past Results+18Activity+2Before the UFC+2Experience+9Striking+22Age and Build+50
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Andre Fili | Kai Kamaka III | |
|---|---|---|
| 49.88 to 99 | Significant Strikes | 63.410 to 126 |
| 0.90 to 3 | Takedowns | 0.40 to 1 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.30 to 1 |
| 1.4 min0 to 4.4 | Control Time | 0.9 min0 to 3.1 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.20 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Andre Fili39%
Kai Kamaka III52%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Andre Fili has lost their last 2 UFC fights.
- Kai Kamaka III lost by KO/TKO against Luke Riley last time out, in 2026.
- Andre Fili has 26 UFC fights to Kai Kamaka III's 2.
- The biggest single edge is age and build: 50 Fighter Elo points in favor of Kai Kamaka III.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.