Phins 38% 62%
Kalshi 48% 52%
10 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Women's Flyweight · 3 Rounds
Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins is 9 points higher on Melissa Gatto than Kalshi's price (62% to 52%). Striking favors Melissa Gatto by 61 Fighter Elo points. Age and Build pulls the other way, by 30 points toward Ernesta Kareckaite. Ernesta Kareckaite is younger by 2 years. The likeliest single ending is Melissa Gatto by decision, at 47%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Melissa Gatto by Decision, 47% from Phins and 35% from Kalshi.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Ernesta Kareckaite by KO/TKO7%10%-3
Ernesta Kareckaite by Submission5%2%+3
Ernesta Kareckaite by Decision27%37%-10
Melissa Gatto by KO/TKO9%6%+3
Melissa Gatto by Submission6%11%-5
Melissa Gatto by Decision47%35%+12
Goes the Distance73%70%+3
Ends in Round 111%10%+1
Ends in Round 29%11%-2
Ends in Round 37%5%+2
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Ernesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto
Age and Build+30Grappling+6Experience+2Activity+2Past Results+55Striking+61
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Ernesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto
| 1421 | Fighter Elo | 1498 |
|---|---|---|
| 1485 | Classic Elo | 1498 |
| 1-2 | UFC Record | 3-3 |
| 28 | Age | 30 |
| 5'9" | Height | 5'5" |
| 71" | Reach | 69" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 5.62 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.47 |
| 4.89 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.67 |
| 54% | Striking Defense | 54% |
| 0.67 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 1.77 |
| 79% | Takedown Defense | 59% |
| 0% | Finish Rate | 100% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.