Phins 62% 38%
Kalshi 76% 24%
14 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Light Heavyweight · 3 Rounds
Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins is 13 points higher on Brendson Ribeiro than Kalshi's price (38% to 24%). Before the UFC favors Brendson Ribeiro by 57 Fighter Elo points. Striking pulls the other way, by 66 points toward Felipe Franco. Felipe Franco is younger by 4 years. The likeliest single ending is Felipe Franco by KO/TKO, at 25%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Goes the Distance, 36% from Phins and 18% from Kalshi. Felipe Franco has 2 UFC fights, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Felipe Franco by KO/TKO25%37%-12
Felipe Franco by Submission15%32%-17
Felipe Franco by Decision22%9%+13
Brendson Ribeiro by KO/TKO17%11%+6
Brendson Ribeiro by Submission7%6%+1
Brendson Ribeiro by Decision14%6%+8
Goes the Distance36%18%+18
Ends in Round 138%46%-8
Ends in Round 219%14%+5
Ends in Round 37%8%-1
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Felipe FrancoBrendson Ribeiro
Striking+66Past Results+52Age and Build+25Grappling+14Activity+1Experience+15Before the UFC+57
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Felipe FrancoBrendson Ribeiro
| 1527 | Fighter Elo | 1442 |
|---|---|---|
| 1502 | Classic Elo | 1445 |
| 1-1 | UFC Record | 2-6 |
| 25 | Age | 30 |
| 6'1" | Height | 6'3" |
| 76" | Reach | 81" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 2.77 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.62 |
| 2.08 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.46 |
| 50% | Striking Defense | 52% |
| 2.08 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 0.70 |
| 86% | Takedown Defense | 32% |
| 100% | Finish Rate | 50% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.