Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Light Heavyweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 10
Fighter Elo 1527Lean: Felipe FrancoFighter Elo 1442
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Felipe FrancoBrendson Ribeiro
22%Decision14%
25%KO/TKO17%
15%Submission7%
36%Goes the Distance
8.8 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Felipe Franco is ahead by 85 in total.
Felipe FrancoBrendson Ribeiro
Striking+66Past Results+52Age and Build+25Grappling+14Activity+1Experience+15Before the UFC+57
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Felipe Franco | Brendson Ribeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| 27.94 to 60 | Significant Strikes | 294 to 63 |
| 1.80 to 5 | Takedowns | 0.30 to 1 |
| 0.30 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.20 to 1 |
| 2.4 min0 to 6.6 | Control Time | 0.7 min0 to 2.5 |
| 0.40 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.20 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Felipe Franco39%
Brendson Ribeiro40%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Felipe Franco won by KO/TKO against Levi Rodrigues Jr. last time out, in 2026.
- Brendson Ribeiro has lost their last 4 UFC fights.
- Felipe Franco is younger by 4 years.
- Brendson Ribeiro has a longer reach by 5 inches.
- The biggest single edge is striking: 66 Fighter Elo points in favor of Felipe Franco.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.