Phins 53% 47%
Kalshi 66% 34%
13 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Bantamweight · 3 Rounds
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins is 14 points higher on Otari Tanzilovi than Kalshi's price (47% to 34%). Age and Build favors Otari Tanzilovi by 35 Fighter Elo points. Past Results pulls the other way, by 21 points toward Malcolm Wellmaker. Otari Tanzilovi is younger by 4 years. The likeliest single ending is Malcolm Wellmaker by decision, at 25%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO, 22% from Phins and 42% from Kalshi. Otari Tanzilovi has 1 UFC fights, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO22%42%-20
Malcolm Wellmaker by Submission6%4%+2
Malcolm Wellmaker by Decision25%23%+2
Otari Tanzilovi by KO/TKO12%8%+4
Otari Tanzilovi by Submission12%4%+8
Otari Tanzilovi by Decision23%19%+4
Goes the Distance48%40%+8
Ends in Round 125%26%-1
Ends in Round 219%16%+3
Ends in Round 38%13%-5
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Malcolm WellmakerOtari Tanzilovi
Past Results+21Striking+17Experience+10Before the UFC+8Activity+3Grappling+1Age and Build+35
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Malcolm WellmakerOtari Tanzilovi
| 1451 | Fighter Elo | 1430 |
|---|---|---|
| 1496 | Classic Elo | 1484 |
| 2-2 | UFC Record | 0-1 |
| 32 | Age | 28 |
| 5'10" | Height | 5'10" |
| 71" | Reach | 70" |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| 4.28 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.87 |
| 3.93 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 5.07 |
| 52% | Striking Defense | 45% |
| 0.00 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 5.00 |
| 43% | Takedown Defense | 100% |
| 100% | Finish Rate | – |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.