Phins 67% 33%
Kalshi 64% 36%
3 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Lightweight · 3 Rounds
Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
Why Phins Agrees
Phins and Kalshi's price are close here: 67% and 64% for Matheus Camilo. Age and Build favors Matheus Camilo by 98 Fighter Elo points. Activity pulls the other way, by 5 points toward Jai Herbert. Matheus Camilo is younger by 13 years. The likeliest single ending is Matheus Camilo by decision, at 29%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Matheus Camilo by Decision, 29% from Phins and 18% from Kalshi.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Matheus Camilo by KO/TKO28%37%-9
Matheus Camilo by Submission10%9%+1
Matheus Camilo by Decision29%18%+11
Jai Herbert by KO/TKO12%16%-4
Jai Herbert by Submission6%2%+4
Jai Herbert by Decision15%18%-3
Goes the Distance44%36%+8
Ends in Round 128%28%0
Ends in Round 221%19%+2
Ends in Round 37%16%-9
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Matheus CamiloJai Herbert
Age and Build+98Grappling+36Striking+2Experience+4Activity+5
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Matheus CamiloJai Herbert
| 1528 | Fighter Elo | 1406 |
|---|---|---|
| 1517 | Classic Elo | 1499 |
| 2-1 | UFC Record | 4-5-1 |
| 25 | Age | 38 |
| 5'10" | Height | 6'1" |
| 69" | Reach | 77" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 2.22 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.19 |
| 3.05 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.34 |
| 67% | Striking Defense | 53% |
| 4.16 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 0.42 |
| – | Takedown Defense | 67% |
| 50% | Finish Rate | 50% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.