Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
Lightweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 10
Fighter Elo 1528Confident: Matheus CamiloFighter Elo 1406
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Matheus CamiloJai Herbert
29%Decision15%
28%KO/TKO12%
10%Submission6%
44%Goes the Distance
9.9 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Matheus Camilo is ahead by 122 in total.
Matheus CamiloJai Herbert
Age and Build+98Grappling+36Striking+2Experience+4Activity+5
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Matheus Camilo | Jai Herbert | |
|---|---|---|
| 28.75 to 58 | Significant Strikes | 28.54 to 58 |
| 1.40 to 4 | Takedowns | 0.30 to 1 |
| 0.40 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.20 to 1 |
| 2.1 min0 to 5.9 | Control Time | 1 min0 to 3.3 |
| 0.30 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.20 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Matheus Camilo41%
Jai Herbert41%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Matheus Camilo won by KO/TKO against Nazim Sadykhov last time out, in 2026.
- Jai Herbert won by KO/TKO against Mandel Nallo last time out, in 2026.
- Matheus Camilo is younger by 13 years.
- Jai Herbert has a longer reach by 8 inches.
- Matheus Camilo averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. Jai Herbert has stopped 67% of the takedowns tried on them.
- The biggest single edge is age and build: 98 Fighter Elo points in favor of Matheus Camilo.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.