Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Main Event · Middleweight · 5 Rounds · Saturday, October 10
Fighter Elo 1559Confident: Christian Leroy DuncanFighter Elo 1677
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Brendan AllenChristian Leroy Duncan
9%Decision36%
5%KO/TKO28%
18%Submission3%
45%Goes the Distance
15.5 minAverage Length, of 25
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Christian Leroy Duncan is ahead by 118 in total.
Brendan AllenChristian Leroy Duncan
Past Results+19Experience+7Activity+4Grappling+2Age and Build+11Striking+140
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Brendan Allen | Christian Leroy Duncan | |
|---|---|---|
| 37.55 to 79 | Significant Strikes | 72.110 to 152 |
| 2.20 to 5 | Takedowns | 0.40 to 2 |
| 0.1usually 0 | Knockdowns | 0.40 to 1 |
| 5.8 min0.1 to 14.2 | Control Time | 1.7 min0 to 5.2 |
| 0.50 to 2 | Submission Attempts | 0.20 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Brendan Allen25%
Christian Leroy Duncan54%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Brendan Allen has won 3 in a row in the UFC.
- Christian Leroy Duncan has won 5 in a row in the UFC.
- Christian Leroy Duncan has a longer reach by 4 inches.
- Christian Leroy Duncan has never been finished in 10 UFC fights.
- Scheduled for five rounds. Brendan Allen has been past the third round twice in the UFC; Christian Leroy Duncan never has.
- Brendan Allen has 19 UFC fights to Christian Leroy Duncan's 10.
- The biggest single edge is striking: 140 Fighter Elo points in favor of Christian Leroy Duncan.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.