Jai Herbert vs. Matheus Camilo
Lightweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 10
Fighter Elo 1406Confident: Matheus CamiloFighter Elo 1528
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Jai HerbertMatheus Camilo
15%Decision29%
11%KO/TKO28%
6%Submission11%
44%Goes the Distance
9.9 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Matheus Camilo is ahead by 122 in total.
Jai HerbertMatheus Camilo
Activity+5Experience+4Striking+2Grappling+36Age and Build+98
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Jai Herbert | Matheus Camilo | |
|---|---|---|
| 28.24 to 58 | Significant Strikes | 28.75 to 58 |
| 0.30 to 1 | Takedowns | 1.40 to 4 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.40 to 1 |
| 1 min0 to 3.3 | Control Time | 2.1 min0 to 5.9 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.30 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Jai Herbert40%
Matheus Camilo42%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Jai Herbert won by KO/TKO against Mandel Nallo last time out, in 2026.
- Matheus Camilo won by KO/TKO against Nazim Sadykhov last time out, in 2026.
- Matheus Camilo is younger by 13 years.
- Jai Herbert has a longer reach by 8 inches.
- Matheus Camilo averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. Jai Herbert has stopped 67% of the takedowns tried on them.
- The biggest single edge is age and build: 98 Fighter Elo points in favor of Matheus Camilo.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.