Friday Notes: Camilo vs. Herbert

Coffee's on. Here's today's rundown. UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan is tomorrow: 12 fights, 3 we feel good about and 4 we'd call close to a coin flip.

Co-Main Event: Camilo vs. Herbert

Matheus Camilo (2-1 in the UFC, 25, on a 2-fight win streak) meets Jai Herbert (4-5 in the UFC, 38, coming off a win) at Lightweight, scheduled for 3 rounds. Herbert has the longer reach by 8 inches.

We have Matheus Camilo at 67%, a real lean but far from a lock. The biggest reason is physical factors (age, height and reach), with grappling helping too.

It goes the distance 44% of the time in our simulations. When it ends early, round 1 is the likeliest. Camilo's likeliest way to win is by decision; Herbert's is by decision. We expect around 29 significant strikes from Camilo and 28 from Herbert, with Camilo the likelier to wrestle (1.4 takedowns on average).

Stat of the Day

Striking defense. Among active fighters with eight or more UFC fights, Aiemann Zahabi leads at 68%, ahead of Miles Johns (67%) and Manon Fiorot (66%).

How the Card Should Go

Add it all up and we expect about 6 of the 12 fights to end before the judges. The fight least likely to go the distance is Price vs. Shahbazyan (73% chance of a finish). Best bet for a knockout: Price vs. Shahbazyan (49%). Best bet for a submission: Prado vs. Bonfim (30%).

Upset Watch

The underdogs we'd keep an eye on: Gerald Meerschaert at 50% against Julius Walker; Otari Tanzilovi at 47% against Malcolm Wellmaker; Leon Shahbazyan at 45% against Niko Price. At these numbers, picking the favorite every time is closer to guessing than it looks.

Rankings Check

Phins' top five at Heavyweight right now, by Fighter Elo: 1. Ciryl Gane (11-2); 2. Mario Pinto (4-0); 3. Jon Jones (22-1); 4. Vitor Petrino (8-2); 5. Waldo Cortes Acosta (10-4). These are our own numbers, not the UFC's rankings, so they can disagree with the official list.

See you tomorrow. Higher or Lower is on the Social page if you need something to do in the meantime.