Fight Day: Allen vs. Duncan

Happy Saturday. UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan is tonight: 12 fights, 3 we feel good about and 4 we'd call close to a coin flip.

Main Event: Allen vs. Duncan

Brendan Allen (15-4 in the UFC, 30, on a 3-fight win streak) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (8-2 in the UFC, 31, on a 5-fight win streak) at Middleweight, scheduled for 5 rounds. Duncan has the longer reach by 4 inches.

We have Christian Leroy Duncan at 67%, a real lean but far from a lock. The biggest reason is striking, with physical factors (age, height and reach) helping too. Allen's best case is past results, where they hold the edge.

It goes the distance 45% of the time in our simulations. When it ends early, round 1 is the likeliest. Duncan's likeliest way to win is by decision; Allen's is by submission. We expect around 38 significant strikes from Allen and 72 from Duncan, with Allen the likelier to wrestle (2.2 takedowns on average).

How the Card Should Go

Add it all up and we expect about 6 of the 12 fights to end before the judges. The fight least likely to go the distance is Price vs. Shahbazyan (73% chance of a finish). Best bet for a knockout: Price vs. Shahbazyan (49%). Best bet for a submission: Walker vs. Meerschaert (30%).

Phins Next to the Market

We picked a different winner than Kalshi's price in 3 of 12 fights. The biggest split: we like Christian Leroy Duncan at 67%, while the price has them at 48%. Prices have a strong track record, so a split like this is a reason to look closer, not a sure thing. Phins is not betting or financial advice.

Fighters to Know

The most experienced fighter on the card is Gerald Meerschaert, with 26 UFC fights. Longest win streak on the card: Christian Leroy Duncan, with 5 in a row.

On This Day

On this day in 2020, Cory Sandhagen beat Marlon Moraes by KO/TKO in round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen, in the main event. That was 6 years ago.

That's the update. If you think you can call the card better than we can, Predict the Card is open on the Social page.