Sunday Notes: Boser vs. Diniz

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott is 6 days away: 13 fights, 4 we feel good about and 5 we'd call close to a coin flip.

Waiting on the Official Results

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan is in the books, but the official results are not in our data yet. We grade every card from the official UFC statistics, which usually show up within a day or two. Our picks were saved before the first fight, and the Card Report, the comparison with Kalshi's pre-fight prices and the Predict the Card scores go up the moment the results land.

Spotlight Fight: Boser vs. Diniz

Tanner Boser (5-6 in the UFC, 35, coming off a loss) meets Jhonata Diniz (3-2 in the UFC, 35, coming off a loss) at Heavyweight, scheduled for 3 rounds. Diniz has the longer reach by 4 inches.

We have Tanner Boser at 51%, which is close to a coin flip. The biggest reason is grappling, with activity helping too. Diniz's best case is striking, where they hold the edge.

It goes the distance 45% of the time in our simulations. When it ends early, round 1 is the likeliest. Boser's likeliest way to win is by decision; Diniz's is by KO/TKO. We expect around 48 significant strikes from Boser and 36 from Diniz.

How the Card Should Go

Add it all up and we expect about 7 of the 13 fights to end before the judges. The fight least likely to go the distance is Nallo vs. Landwehr (69% chance of a finish). Best bet for a knockout: Nallo vs. Landwehr (56%). Best bet for a submission: Anheliger vs. Koslow (30%).

Upset Watch

The underdogs we'd keep an eye on: Nate Landwehr at 49% against Mandel Nallo; Jhonata Diniz at 49% against Tanner Boser; Javad Mahjoub at 47% against Joel Faglier. At these numbers, picking the favorite every time is closer to guessing than it looks.

Fighters to Know

Making their UFC debut: Cristian Perez, Louis Jourdain, Timothy Cuamba, Nick Galanti. With no UFC fights to go on, we lean on records from before the UFC, so treat those numbers with a little extra caution. The most experienced fighter on the card is Katlyn Cerminara, with 17 UFC fights. Longest win streak on the card: Mike Malott, with 4 in a row.

Rankings Check

Phins' top five at Light Heavyweight right now, by Fighter Elo: 1. Navajo Stirling (6-0); 2. Magomed Ankalaev (13-2); 3. Reinier de Ridder (5-2); 4. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (3-0); 5. Carlos Ulberg (10-1). These are our own numbers, not the UFC's rankings, so they can disagree with the official list.

That's it for today. Predict the Card is free on the Social page, and so is today's Guess the Fighter.