Phins 33% 67%
Kalshi 53% 47%
20 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Main Event · Middleweight · 5 Rounds
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins picks Christian Leroy Duncan at 67%; Kalshi's price favors Brendan Allen at 53%. Striking favors Christian Leroy Duncan by 140 Fighter Elo points. Past Results pulls the other way, by 19 points toward Brendan Allen. Christian Leroy Duncan has a longer reach by 4 inches. The likeliest single ending is Christian Leroy Duncan by decision, at 36%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Christian Leroy Duncan by Decision, 36% from Phins and 12% from Kalshi.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Brendan Allen by KO/TKO5%9%-4
Brendan Allen by Submission18%25%-7
Brendan Allen by Decision9%23%-14
Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO28%28%0
Christian Leroy Duncan by Submission3%4%-1
Christian Leroy Duncan by Decision36%12%+24
Goes the Distance45%39%+6
Ends in Round 120%22%-2
Ends in Round 219%17%+2
Ends in Round 312%22%-10
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Brendan AllenChristian Leroy Duncan
Past Results+19Experience+7Activity+4Grappling+2Age and Build+11Striking+140
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Brendan AllenChristian Leroy Duncan
| 1559 | Fighter Elo | 1677 |
|---|---|---|
| 1647 | Classic Elo | 1593 |
| 15-4 | UFC Record | 8-2 |
| 30 | Age | 31 |
| 6'2" | Height | 6'2" |
| 75" | Reach | 79" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 3.74 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 4.45 |
| 3.75 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.36 |
| 48% | Striking Defense | 54% |
| 1.48 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 0.43 |
| 56% | Takedown Defense | 58% |
| 60% | Finish Rate | 62% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.