Phins 64% 36%
Kalshi 52% 48%
12 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Lightweight · 3 Rounds
Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins is 11 points higher on Francisco Prado than Kalshi's price (64% to 52%). Age and Build favors Francisco Prado by 58 Fighter Elo points. Past Results pulls the other way, by 1 points toward Ismael Bonfim. Francisco Prado is younger by 6 years. The likeliest single ending is Francisco Prado by submission, at 26%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Francisco Prado by Submission, 26% from Phins and 8% from Kalshi.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Francisco Prado by KO/TKO17%32%-15
Francisco Prado by Submission26%8%+18
Francisco Prado by Decision21%13%+8
Ismael Bonfim by KO/TKO7%10%-3
Ismael Bonfim by Submission4%5%-1
Ismael Bonfim by Decision25%33%-8
Goes the Distance46%46%0
Ends in Round 131%28%+3
Ends in Round 216%20%-4
Ends in Round 37%13%-6
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim
Age and Build+58Experience+16Grappling+14Activity+9Striking+1Past Results+1
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim
| 1507 | Fighter Elo | 1410 |
|---|---|---|
| 1445 | Classic Elo | 1475 |
| 1-5 | UFC Record | 2-4 |
| 24 | Age | 30 |
| 5'10" | Height | 5'8" |
| 69" | Reach | 71" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 3.68 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 4.92 |
| 4.31 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 4.28 |
| 54% | Striking Defense | 53% |
| 0.76 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 1.29 |
| 40% | Takedown Defense | 73% |
| 100% | Finish Rate | 50% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.