Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim
Lightweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 10
Fighter Elo 1507Lean: Francisco PradoFighter Elo 1410
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim
21%Decision25%
17%KO/TKO7%
26%Submission4%
46%Goes the Distance
9.9 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Francisco Prado is ahead by 97 in total.
Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim
Age and Build+58Experience+16Grappling+14Activity+9Striking+1Past Results+1
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Francisco Prado | Ismael Bonfim | |
|---|---|---|
| 39.57 to 80 | Significant Strikes | 385 to 81 |
| 10 to 3 | Takedowns | 10 to 3 |
| 0.30 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.10 to 1 |
| 2.4 min0 to 6.4 | Control Time | 1.6 min0 to 4.9 |
| 0.60 to 2 | Submission Attempts | 0.20 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Francisco Prado43%
Ismael Bonfim41%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Francisco Prado has lost their last 4 UFC fights.
- Ismael Bonfim has lost their last 3 UFC fights.
- Francisco Prado is younger by 6 years.
- Ismael Bonfim has a longer reach by 2 inches.
- Francisco Prado has never been finished in 6 UFC fights.
- The biggest single edge is age and build: 58 Fighter Elo points in favor of Francisco Prado.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.