Phins 47% 53%
Kalshi 50% 50%
3 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Heavyweight · 3 Rounds
Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins picks Joel Faglier at 53%; Kalshi's price favors Javad Mahjoub at 50%. Age and Build favors Joel Faglier by 88 Fighter Elo points. Before the UFC pulls the other way, by 69 points toward Javad Mahjoub. Joel Faglier is younger by 9 years. The likeliest single ending is Joel Faglier by KO/TKO, at 23%. Javad Mahjoub is making a UFC debut, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Javad MahjoubJoel Faglier
Before the UFC+69Age and Build+88
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Javad MahjoubJoel Faglier
| 1412 | Fighter Elo | 1431 |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | UFC Record | 0-0 |
| 34 | Age | 25 |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.