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    UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

    Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier

    Heavyweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 17
    Javad Mahjoub47%
    Joel Faglier53%
    Fighter Elo 1412Toss-Up: Joel FaglierFighter Elo 1431

    How It Ends

    The chance of each ending, for each fighter.

    Javad MahjoubJoel Faglier
    21%Decision21%
    18%KO/TKO23%
    8%Submission9%
    42%Goes the Distance
    9.4 minAverage Length, of 15

    When It Ends

    The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.

    Round 135%Round 215%Round 38%Decision42%

    Where the Gap Comes From

    In Fighter Elo points. Joel Faglier is ahead by 19 in total.

    Javad MahjoubJoel Faglier
    Before the UFC+69Age and Build+88

    Projected Numbers

    The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.

    Javad MahjoubJoel Faglier
    304 to 64Significant Strikes31.44 to 66
    1.10 to 3Takedowns10 to 3
    0.10 to 1Knockdowns0.20 to 1
    2.4 min0 to 7Control Time2.3 min0 to 6.6
    0.30 to 1Submission Attempts0.30 to 1

    Chance of at Least

    Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.

    Javad Mahjoub43%
    Joel Faglier45%

    Worth Knowing

    Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.

    • Joel Faglier is younger by 9 years.
    • Javad Mahjoub is making a UFC debut, so there is less to go on.
    • Joel Faglier is making a UFC debut, so there is less to go on.
    • The biggest single edge is age and build: 88 Fighter Elo points in favor of Joel Faglier.

    Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.