Katlyn Cerminara vs. Mackenzie Stiller
Women's Flyweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 17
Fighter Elo 1363Toss-Up: Mackenzie StillerFighter Elo 1393
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Katlyn CerminaraMackenzie Stiller
31%Decision29%
8%KO/TKO17%
6%Submission8%
60%Goes the Distance
11.4 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Mackenzie Stiller is ahead by 30 in total.
Katlyn CerminaraMackenzie Stiller
Experience+56Past Results+44Before the UFC+22Grappling+3Striking+7Activity+26Age and Build+122
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Katlyn Cerminara | Mackenzie Stiller | |
|---|---|---|
| 498 to 94 | Significant Strikes | 49.610 to 94 |
| 0.60 to 2 | Takedowns | 1.10 to 3 |
| 0usually 0 | Knockdowns | 0.20 to 1 |
| 1.9 min0 to 6 | Control Time | 2.5 min0 to 6.8 |
| 0.20 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.30 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Katlyn Cerminara45%
Mackenzie Stiller45%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Katlyn Cerminara has lost their last 2 UFC fights.
- Mackenzie Stiller is younger by 11 years.
- Katlyn Cerminara has been out for 2.6 years.
- Mackenzie Stiller is making a UFC debut, so there is less to go on.
- The biggest single edge is age and build: 122 Fighter Elo points in favor of Mackenzie Stiller.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.