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    UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

    Julien Leblanc vs. Nick Galanti

    Middleweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 17
    Julien Leblanc26%
    Nick Galanti74%
    Fighter Elo 1276Confident: Nick GalantiFighter Elo 1453

    How It Ends

    The chance of each ending, for each fighter.

    Julien LeblancNick Galanti
    13%Decision22%
    10%KO/TKO28%
    4%Submission24%
    35%Goes the Distance
    8.5 minAverage Length, of 15

    When It Ends

    The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.

    Round 141%Round 218%Round 36%Decision35%

    Where the Gap Comes From

    In Fighter Elo points. Nick Galanti is ahead by 177 in total.

    Julien LeblancNick Galanti
    Experience+20Striking+3Activity+1Grappling+24Age and Build+42Past Results+53Before the UFC+80

    Projected Numbers

    The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.

    Julien LeblancNick Galanti
    26.73 to 60Significant Strikes33.65 to 73
    0.60 to 2Takedowns1.30 to 4
    0.10 to 1Knockdowns0.30 to 1
    1.4 min0 to 4.4Control Time2.6 min0 to 7
    0.20 to 1Submission Attempts0.50 to 2

    Chance of at Least

    Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.

    Julien Leblanc36%
    Nick Galanti46%

    Worth Knowing

    Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.

    • Julien Leblanc lost by submission against Robert Valentin last time out, in 2026.
    • Nick Galanti is making a UFC debut, so there is less to go on.
    • The biggest single edge is the record before the UFC: 80 Fighter Elo points in favor of Nick Galanti.
    • The likeliest single ending in the forecast is Nick Galanti by KO/TKO, at 28%.

    Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.