PhinsPhins
Create AccountUpgrade to PremiumPremium
Welcome!
FollowingEdit
    UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

    Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz

    Heavyweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 17
    Tanner Boser52%
    Jhonata Diniz48%
    Fighter Elo 1436Toss-Up: Tanner BoserFighter Elo 1422

    How It Ends

    The chance of each ending, for each fighter.

    Tanner BoserJhonata Diniz
    26%Decision19%
    21%KO/TKO25%
    4%Submission5%
    45%Goes the Distance
    9.9 minAverage Length, of 15

    When It Ends

    The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.

    Round 130%Round 217%Round 39%Decision45%

    Where the Gap Comes From

    In Fighter Elo points. Tanner Boser is ahead by 14 in total.

    Tanner BoserJhonata Diniz
    Grappling+36Activity+35Experience+10Past Results+13Age and Build+14Striking+19

    Projected Numbers

    The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.

    Tanner BoserJhonata Diniz
    47.57 to 97Significant Strikes35.86 to 72
    0.50 to 2Takedowns0.20 to 1
    0.20 to 1Knockdowns0.20 to 1
    1.9 min0 to 5.9Control Time0.8 min0 to 2.7
    0.1usually 0Submission Attempts0.1usually 0

    Chance of at Least

    Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.

    Tanner Boser52%
    Jhonata Diniz38%

    Worth Knowing

    Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.

    • Tanner Boser lost by KO/TKO against Gokhan Saricam last time out, in 2026.
    • Jhonata Diniz lost by KO/TKO against Mario Pinto last time out, in 2025.
    • Jhonata Diniz has a longer reach by 4 inches.
    • Jhonata Diniz has been out for 1.0 years.
    • The biggest single edge is grappling: 36 Fighter Elo points in favor of Tanner Boser.

    Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.