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    UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

    Mandel Nallo vs. Nate Landwehr

    Lightweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 17
    Mandel Nallo51%
    Nate Landwehr49%
    Fighter Elo 1274Toss-Up: Mandel NalloFighter Elo 1264

    How It Ends

    The chance of each ending, for each fighter.

    Mandel NalloNate Landwehr
    18%Decision13%
    28%KO/TKO28%
    5%Submission8%
    31%Goes the Distance
    7.8 minAverage Length, of 15

    When It Ends

    The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.

    Round 148%Round 215%Round 37%Decision31%

    Where the Gap Comes From

    In Fighter Elo points. Mandel Nallo is ahead by 10 in total.

    Mandel NalloNate Landwehr
    Striking+74Age and Build+23Grappling+8Experience+38Past Results+56

    Projected Numbers

    The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.

    Mandel NalloNate Landwehr
    40.15 to 91Significant Strikes36.74 to 82
    0.70 to 2Takedowns0.60 to 2
    0.40 to 1Knockdowns0.30 to 1
    1.3 min0 to 4.1Control Time1.3 min0 to 4.1
    0.20 to 1Submission Attempts0.20 to 1

    Chance of at Least

    Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.

    Mandel Nallo40%
    Nate Landwehr37%

    Worth Knowing

    Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.

    • Mandel Nallo lost by KO/TKO against Jai Herbert last time out, in 2026.
    • Nate Landwehr has lost their last 3 UFC fights.
    • Mandel Nallo has a longer reach by 3 inches.
    • Nate Landwehr has 11 UFC fights to Mandel Nallo's 1.
    • The biggest single edge is striking: 74 Fighter Elo points in favor of Mandel Nallo.

    Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.