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    UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

    Louis Jourdain vs. Timothy Cuamba

    Bantamweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 17
    Louis Jourdain60%
    Timothy Cuamba40%
    Fighter Elo 1452Lean: Louis JourdainFighter Elo 1382

    How It Ends

    The chance of each ending, for each fighter.

    Louis JourdainTimothy Cuamba
    26%Decision19%
    22%KO/TKO14%
    12%Submission8%
    45%Goes the Distance
    9.8 minAverage Length, of 15

    When It Ends

    The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.

    Round 132%Round 216%Round 38%Decision45%

    Where the Gap Comes From

    In Fighter Elo points. Louis Jourdain is ahead by 70 in total.

    Louis JourdainTimothy Cuamba
    Before the UFC+72Age and Build+2

    Projected Numbers

    The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.

    Louis JourdainTimothy Cuamba
    34.95 to 72Significant Strikes32.65 to 68
    1.30 to 4Takedowns1.10 to 3
    0.30 to 1Knockdowns0.20 to 1
    2.5 min0 to 6.9Control Time2.1 min0 to 6.2
    0.50 to 2Submission Attempts0.40 to 1

    Chance of at Least

    Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.

    Louis Jourdain43%
    Timothy Cuamba40%

    Worth Knowing

    Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.

    • Louis Jourdain is making a UFC debut, so there is less to go on.
    • Timothy Cuamba is making a UFC debut, so there is less to go on.
    • The biggest single edge is the record before the UFC: 72 Fighter Elo points in favor of Louis Jourdain.
    • The likeliest single ending in the forecast is Louis Jourdain by decision, at 26%.

    Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.