Phins 43% 57%
Kalshi 48% 52%
5 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Main Event · Welterweight · 5 Rounds
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott
Why Phins Agrees
Phins and Kalshi's price are close here: 43% and 48% for Joaquin Buckley. Striking favors Mike Malott by 66 Fighter Elo points. Age and Build pulls the other way, by 37 points toward Joaquin Buckley. Joaquin Buckley is younger by 2 years. The likeliest single ending is Mike Malott by decision, at 27%.
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Joaquin BuckleyMike Malott
Age and Build+37Experience+21Activity+1Past Results+6Grappling+31Striking+66
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Joaquin BuckleyMike Malott
| 1595 | Fighter Elo | 1641 |
|---|---|---|
| 1586 | Classic Elo | 1596 |
| 11-6 | UFC Record | 7-1 |
| 32 | Age | 34 |
| 5'10" | Height | 6'1" |
| 76" | Reach | 73" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 3.62 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.94 |
| 3.10 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.83 |
| 59% | Striking Defense | 57% |
| 1.43 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 1.57 |
| 70% | Takedown Defense | 73% |
| 73% | Finish Rate | 71% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.