Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott
Main Event · Welterweight · 5 Rounds · Saturday, October 17
Fighter Elo 1595Lean: Mike MalottFighter Elo 1641
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Joaquin BuckleyMike Malott
17%Decision27%
24%KO/TKO24%
3%Submission6%
44%Goes the Distance
15 minAverage Length, of 25
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Mike Malott is ahead by 46 in total.
Joaquin BuckleyMike Malott
Age and Build+37Experience+21Activity+1Past Results+6Grappling+31Striking+66
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Joaquin Buckley | Mike Malott | |
|---|---|---|
| 50.26 to 106 | Significant Strikes | 49.67 to 105 |
| 0.50 to 2 | Takedowns | 10 to 3 |
| 0.30 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.40 to 1 |
| 0.9 min0 to 2.7 | Control Time | 1.8 min0 to 5.9 |
| 0.1usually 0 | Submission Attempts | 0.10 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Joaquin Buckley44%
Mike Malott42%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Joaquin Buckley has lost their last 2 UFC fights.
- Mike Malott has won 4 in a row in the UFC.
- Joaquin Buckley is younger by 2 years.
- Joaquin Buckley has a longer reach by 3 inches.
- Both have fought Kevin Holland: Joaquin Buckley lost by KO/TKO in 2020, Mike Malott won by decision in 2025.
- Joaquin Buckley has finished 8 of 11 UFC wins (8 by KO/TKO, 0 by submission).
- Mike Malott has finished 5 of 7 UFC wins (3 by KO/TKO, 2 by submission).
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.