Phins 50% 50%
Kalshi 73% 27%
23 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Light Heavyweight · 3 Rounds
Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins is 22 points higher on Gerald Meerschaert than Kalshi's price (50% to 27%). Striking favors Gerald Meerschaert by 71 Fighter Elo points. Age and Build pulls the other way, by 121 points toward Julius Walker. Julius Walker is younger by 12 years. The likeliest single ending is Julius Walker by decision, at 25%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Julius Walker by KO/TKO, 19% from Phins and 50% from Kalshi.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Julius Walker by KO/TKO19%50%-31
Julius Walker by Submission6%13%-7
Julius Walker by Decision25%8%+17
Gerald Meerschaert by KO/TKO13%5%+8
Gerald Meerschaert by Submission24%16%+8
Gerald Meerschaert by Decision13%7%+6
Goes the Distance38%18%+20
Ends in Round 137%41%-4
Ends in Round 218%27%-9
Ends in Round 37%16%-9
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Julius WalkerGerald Meerschaert
Age and Build+121Grappling+24Experience+3Activity+4Past Results+62Striking+71
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Julius WalkerGerald Meerschaert
| 1460 | Fighter Elo | 1455 |
|---|---|---|
| 1473 | Classic Elo | 1466 |
| 1-3 | UFC Record | 12-14 |
| 27 | Age | 38 |
| 6'4" | Height | 6'1" |
| 78" | Reach | 77" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 3.72 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.95 |
| 4.18 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.44 |
| 42% | Striking Defense | 54% |
| 4.07 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 1.70 |
| 100% | Takedown Defense | 40% |
| 0% | Finish Rate | 100% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.