Phins 45% 55%
Kalshi 72% 28%
27 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Women's Flyweight · 3 Rounds
Katlyn Cerminara vs. Mackenzie Stiller
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins picks Mackenzie Stiller at 55%; Kalshi's price favors Katlyn Cerminara at 72%. Age and Build favors Mackenzie Stiller by 122 Fighter Elo points. Experience pulls the other way, by 56 points toward Katlyn Cerminara. Mackenzie Stiller is younger by 11 years. The likeliest single ending is Katlyn Cerminara by decision, at 31%. Mackenzie Stiller is making a UFC debut, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Katlyn CerminaraMackenzie Stiller
Experience+56Past Results+44Before the UFC+22Grappling+3Striking+7Activity+26Age and Build+122
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Katlyn CerminaraMackenzie Stiller
| 1363 | Fighter Elo | 1393 |
|---|---|---|
| 1570 | Classic Elo | – |
| 11-6 | UFC Record | 0-0 |
| 37 | Age | 27 |
| 5'9" | Height | – |
| 68" | Reach | – |
| Orthodox | Stance | – |
| 4.58 | Strikes Landed per Minute | – |
| 4.48 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | – |
| 62% | Striking Defense | – |
| 0.31 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | – |
| 50% | Takedown Defense | – |
| 0% | Finish Rate | – |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.