Phins 55% 45%
Kalshi 41% 59%
14 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Welterweight · 3 Rounds
Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins picks Niko Price at 55%; Kalshi's price favors Leon Shahbazyan at 59%. Before the UFC favors Niko Price by 77 Fighter Elo points. Age and Build pulls the other way, by 55 points toward Leon Shahbazyan. Leon Shahbazyan is younger by 6 years. The likeliest single ending is Niko Price by KO/TKO, at 32%. The biggest gap in how it ends: Leon Shahbazyan by Submission, 12% from Phins and 38% from Kalshi. Leon Shahbazyan has 1 UFC fights, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
How It Ends: Phins vs. Kalshi
Kalshi's prices for how and when the fight ends, next to the Phins forecast. The last column is Phins minus Kalshi, in points; gaps of 10 or more are marked.
PhinsKalshiGap
Niko Price by KO/TKO32%24%+8
Niko Price by Submission12%8%+4
Niko Price by Decision11%9%+2
Leon Shahbazyan by KO/TKO16%15%+1
Leon Shahbazyan by Submission12%38%-26
Leon Shahbazyan by Decision16%6%+10
Goes the Distance27%16%+11
Ends in Round 148%57%-9
Ends in Round 218%18%0
Ends in Round 36%11%-5
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Niko PriceLeon Shahbazyan
Before the UFC+77Past Results+62Experience+40Activity+6Grappling+40Striking+52Age and Build+55
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Niko PriceLeon Shahbazyan
| 1305 | Fighter Elo | 1267 |
|---|---|---|
| 1466 | Classic Elo | 1484 |
| 8-11 | UFC Record | 0-1 |
| 37 | Age | 30 |
| 6'0" | Height | 6'4" |
| 76" | Reach | 74" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 5.11 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.00 |
| 5.57 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 15.65 |
| 48% | Striking Defense | 46% |
| 1.06 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 0.00 |
| 50% | Takedown Defense | – |
| 75% | Finish Rate | – |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.