Phins 52% 48%
Kalshi 32% 68%
20 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Heavyweight · 3 Rounds
Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins picks Tanner Boser at 52%; Kalshi's price favors Jhonata Diniz at 68%. Grappling favors Tanner Boser by 36 Fighter Elo points. Striking pulls the other way, by 19 points toward Jhonata Diniz. Jhonata Diniz has a longer reach by 4 inches. The likeliest single ending is Tanner Boser by decision, at 26%.
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Tanner BoserJhonata Diniz
Grappling+36Activity+35Experience+10Past Results+13Age and Build+14Striking+19
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Tanner BoserJhonata Diniz
| 1436 | Fighter Elo | 1422 |
|---|---|---|
| 1483 | Classic Elo | 1516 |
| 5-6 | UFC Record | 3-2 |
| 35 | Age | 35 |
| 6'2" | Height | 6'4" |
| 75" | Reach | 79" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 4.82 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.67 |
| 3.00 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.41 |
| 57% | Striking Defense | 58% |
| 0.00 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 0.00 |
| 70% | Takedown Defense | 69% |
| 60% | Finish Rate | 33% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.