Rafael Tobias
- UFC Record
- 0-2
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 6'2"
- Reach
- 74"
- Stance
- Orthodox
Fighter Elo
The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.
Joins the rankings after 3 UFC fights.
Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.
How Fighter Elo Works
Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.
Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.
Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.
Career Numbers
Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.
| Ended By | KO/TKO | Submission | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Fight History
Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.
Lossvs. Lucas FernandoKO/TKO · R3 1:10Aug 15, 2026UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Light Heavyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds
| Rafael Tobias | Lucas Fernando | |
|---|---|---|
| 1424 | Fighter Elo Going In | 1422 |
| 1483 | Classic Elo Going In | 1500 |
| 13 of 56 | Significant Strikes | 69 of 115 |
| 14 of 58 | Total Strikes | 69 of 115 |
| 1 of 1 | Takedowns | 0 of 0 |
| 0 | Knockdowns | 2 |
| 0 | Submission Attempts | 0 |
| 0:55 | Control Time | 0:09 |
Lossvs. Diyar NurgozhayUnanimous DecisionMar 7, 2026UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Light Heavyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds
| Rafael Tobias | Diyar Nurgozhay | |
|---|---|---|
| 1481 | Fighter Elo Going In | 1432 |
| 1500 | Classic Elo Going In | 1467 |
| 39 of 101 | Significant Strikes | 94 of 143 |
| 52 of 114 | Total Strikes | 100 of 150 |
| 2 of 8 | Takedowns | 0 of 1 |
| 0 | Knockdowns | 0 |
| 1 | Submission Attempts | 0 |
| 2:31 | Control Time | 1:28 |