Phins 40% 60%
Kalshi 27% 73%
13 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Lightweight · 3 Rounds
Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Perez
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins is 13 points higher on Kyle Nelson than Kalshi's price (40% to 27%). Experience favors Kyle Nelson by 50 Fighter Elo points. Age and Build pulls the other way, by 88 points toward Cristian Perez. Cristian Perez is younger by 8 years. The likeliest single ending is Cristian Perez by decision, at 26%. Cristian Perez is making a UFC debut, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Kyle NelsonCristian Perez
Experience+50Past Results+7Striking+9Grappling+13Before the UFC+15Age and Build+88
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Kyle NelsonCristian Perez
| 1363 | Fighter Elo | 1432 |
|---|---|---|
| 1500 | Classic Elo | – |
| 5-6-1 | UFC Record | 0-0 |
| 35 | Age | 27 |
| 5'11" | Height | 5'9" |
| 71" | Reach | 72" |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| 3.60 | Strikes Landed per Minute | – |
| 4.58 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | – |
| 54% | Striking Defense | – |
| 1.18 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | – |
| 67% | Takedown Defense | – |
| 40% | Finish Rate | – |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.