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Lightweight · Active

Kyle Nelson

UFC Record
5-6-1
Age
35
Height
5'11"
Reach
71"
Stance
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Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1352Today
1412Best, Dec 2018
1500Classic Elo
#330 Men: Pound for Pound#67 Lightweight
130013501400145020192021202320251412 going into Diego Ferreira, Dec 20181370 going into Matt Sayles, May 20191341 going into Marco Polo Reyes, Sep 20191389 going into Billy Quarantillo, Sep 20201316 going into Jai Herbert, Jul 20221328 going into Dooho Choi, Feb 20231320 going into Blake Bilder, Jun 20231367 going into Fernando Padilla, Sep 20231399 going into Bill Algeo, Mar 20241406 going into Steve Garcia, Sep 20241327 going into Matt Frevola, Oct 20251394 going into Terrance McKinney, Mar 20261352 today1352
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1500Today
1516Best, Mar 2026
1352Fighter Elo
#301 Men: Pound for Pound#64 Lightweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

14501500155020192021202320251500 going into Diego Ferreira, Dec 20181486 going into Matt Sayles, May 20191470 going into Marco Polo Reyes, Sep 20191487 going into Billy Quarantillo, Sep 20201473 going into Jai Herbert, Jul 20221458 going into Dooho Choi, Feb 20231460 going into Blake Bilder, Jun 20231478 going into Fernando Padilla, Sep 20231496 going into Bill Algeo, Mar 20241514 going into Steve Garcia, Sep 20241499 going into Matt Frevola, Oct 20251516 going into Terrance McKinney, Mar 20261500 today1500
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

3.60Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
46%Striking Accuracy
4.58Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
54%Striking Defense
0.13Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
1.18Takedowns per 15 Minutes
23%Takedown Accuracy
67%Takedown Defense
0.52Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
20%Share of Fight Time in Control
9.6 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins203
Losses411

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Lossvs. Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO · R1 0:24Mar 28, 2026UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonTerrance McKinney
1394Fighter Elo Going In1492
1516Classic Elo Going In1525
1 of 3Significant Strikes13 of 27
1 of 3Total Strikes15 of 29
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:13
Winvs. Matt FrevolaUnanimous DecisionOct 18, 2025UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonMatt Frevola
1327Fighter Elo Going In1325
1499Classic Elo Going In1510
63 of 135Significant Strikes43 of 136
92 of 170Total Strikes60 of 155
2 of 5Takedowns2 of 3
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
3:11Control Time1:58
Lossvs. Steve GarciaKO/TKO · R1 3:59Sep 7, 2024UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonSteve Garcia
1406Fighter Elo Going In1523
1514Classic Elo Going In1548
1 of 2Significant Strikes22 of 37
31 of 36Total Strikes39 of 62
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:13Control Time1:36
Winvs. Bill AlgeoKO/TKO · R1 4:00Mar 30, 2024UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonBill Algeo
1399Fighter Elo Going In1493
1496Classic Elo Going In1538
32 of 59Significant Strikes30 of 58
40 of 68Total Strikes44 of 73
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:48Control Time0:00
Winvs. Fernando PadillaUnanimous DecisionSep 16, 2023Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonFernando Padilla
1367Fighter Elo Going In1485
1478Classic Elo Going In1517
82 of 184Significant Strikes72 of 208
83 of 185Total Strikes73 of 209
0 of 3Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:07
Winvs. Blake BilderUnanimous DecisionJun 10, 2023UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonBlake Bilder
1320Fighter Elo Going In1487
1460Classic Elo Going In1515
59 of 126Significant Strikes45 of 120
83 of 150Total Strikes84 of 159
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 3
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:21Control Time2:45
Drawvs. Dooho ChoiMajority DecisionFeb 4, 2023UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonDooho Choi
1328Fighter Elo Going In1372
1458Classic Elo Going In1500
20 of 58Significant Strikes50 of 78
39 of 80Total Strikes79 of 114
5 of 10Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
5:34Control Time3:58
Lossvs. Jai HerbertUnanimous DecisionJul 23, 2022UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonJai Herbert
1316Fighter Elo Going In1400
1473Classic Elo Going In1479
41 of 62Significant Strikes36 of 64
55 of 77Total Strikes84 of 116
0 of 4Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
3:06Control Time5:57
Lossvs. Billy QuarantilloKO/TKO · R3 0:07Sep 12, 2020UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonBilly Quarantillo
1389Fighter Elo Going In1702
1487Classic Elo Going In1532
56 of 114Significant Strikes79 of 150
62 of 120Total Strikes112 of 185
0 of 4Takedowns2 of 6
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
1:27Control Time3:28
Winvs. Marco Polo ReyesKO/TKO · R1 1:36Sep 21, 2019UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonMarco Polo Reyes
1341Fighter Elo Going In1320
1470Classic Elo Going In1510
12 of 16Significant Strikes6 of 10
12 of 16Total Strikes7 of 11
0 of 2Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:50Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Matt SaylesSubmission · R3 3:16May 4, 2019UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonMatt Sayles
1370Fighter Elo Going In1521
1486Classic Elo Going In1483
26 of 93Significant Strikes75 of 147
32 of 103Total Strikes106 of 181
2 of 10Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
4Submission Attempts1
3:47Control Time2:47
Lossvs. Diego FerreiraKO/TKO · R2 1:23Dec 8, 2018UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Kyle NelsonDiego Ferreira
1412Fighter Elo Going In1494
1500Classic Elo Going In1536
20 of 50Significant Strikes54 of 102
20 of 50Total Strikes63 of 112
0 of 0Takedowns2 of 4
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
0:14Control Time3:28