Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Perez
Lightweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 17
Fighter Elo 1363Lean: Cristian PerezFighter Elo 1432
How It Ends
The chance of each ending, for each fighter.
Kyle NelsonCristian Perez
18%Decision26%
13%KO/TKO25%
8%Submission9%
44%Goes the Distance
9.7 minAverage Length, of 15
When It Ends
The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.
Where the Gap Comes From
In Fighter Elo points. Cristian Perez is ahead by 69 in total.
Kyle NelsonCristian Perez
Experience+50Past Results+7Striking+9Grappling+13Before the UFC+15Age and Build+88
Projected Numbers
The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.
| Kyle Nelson | Cristian Perez | |
|---|---|---|
| 33.65 to 70 | Significant Strikes | 41.36 to 85 |
| 0.80 to 3 | Takedowns | 0.80 to 3 |
| 0.10 to 1 | Knockdowns | 0.30 to 1 |
| 1.8 min0 to 5.5 | Control Time | 2.3 min0 to 6.4 |
| 0.30 to 1 | Submission Attempts | 0.30 to 1 |
Chance of at Least
Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.
Kyle Nelson42%
Cristian Perez51%
Worth Knowing
Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.
- Kyle Nelson lost by KO/TKO against Terrance McKinney last time out, in 2026.
- Cristian Perez is younger by 8 years.
- Cristian Perez is making a UFC debut, so there is less to go on.
- The biggest single edge is age and build: 88 Fighter Elo points in favor of Cristian Perez.
Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.