Phins 51% 49%
Kalshi 72% 28%
21 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Lightweight · 3 Rounds
Mandel Nallo vs. Nate Landwehr
Why Phins Sees It Differently
Phins is 21 points higher on Nate Landwehr than Kalshi's price (49% to 28%). Past Results favors Nate Landwehr by 56 Fighter Elo points. Striking pulls the other way, by 74 points toward Mandel Nallo. Mandel Nallo has a longer reach by 3 inches. The likeliest single ending is Mandel Nallo by KO/TKO, at 28%. Mandel Nallo has 1 UFC fights, so Phins has less to go on. In fights like this, prices have done better than Phins in the past.
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Mandel NalloNate Landwehr
Striking+74Age and Build+23Grappling+8Experience+38Past Results+56
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Mandel NalloNate Landwehr
| 1274 | Fighter Elo | 1264 |
|---|---|---|
| 1483 | Classic Elo | 1489 |
| 0-1 | UFC Record | 5-6 |
| 37 | Age | 38 |
| 6'0" | Height | 5'9" |
| 75" | Reach | 72" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 7.68 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 5.55 |
| 9.12 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 5.96 |
| 32% | Striking Defense | 51% |
| 0.00 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 0.73 |
| – | Takedown Defense | 72% |
| – | Finish Rate | 60% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.