Phins 33% 67%
Kalshi 34% 66%
1 Point Gap
Tale of the Tape · Middleweight · 3 Rounds
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Kyle Daukaus
Why Phins Agrees
Phins and Kalshi's price are close here: 33% and 34% for Marc-Andre Barriault. Striking favors Kyle Daukaus by 101 Fighter Elo points. Experience pulls the other way, by 13 points toward Marc-Andre Barriault. Kyle Daukaus is younger by 3 years. The likeliest single ending is Kyle Daukaus by decision, at 29%.
What Drives Our Forecast
Fighter Elo points, toward each fighter.
Marc-Andre BarriaultKyle Daukaus
Experience+13Activity+8Grappling+7Past Results+10Age and Build+38Striking+101
By the Numbers
The two fighters side by side. A dot marks the better number.
Marc-Andre BarriaultKyle Daukaus
| 1286 | Fighter Elo | 1408 |
|---|---|---|
| 1456 | Classic Elo | 1496 |
| 6-10 | UFC Record | 4-5 |
| 36 | Age | 33 |
| 6'1" | Height | 6'2" |
| 74" | Reach | 76" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 5.65 | Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.86 |
| 5.94 | Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.23 |
| 49% | Striking Defense | 42% |
| 0.34 | Takedowns per 15 Minutes | 1.96 |
| 68% | Takedown Defense | 71% |
| 67% | Finish Rate | 75% |
Phins does not factor in any odds or prices; Kalshi's price is shown only for comparison. Phins is not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to Kalshi. This is forecasting and analytics, not betting or financial advice.